covid-19 – www.musings.ch

COVID: build out ICUs

Hot take: If ICUs are the bottleneck, build out more ICUs. Pro mode: build out ad-hoc ICUs and train enough people (through rotation) to ensure skilled and experienced staffing in peak times.

You read it here first.

The Pandemic is a Conspiracy

by the disinfectant industrial complex to get us all constantly high. You read it here first.

COVID-19: The Real (Death) Toll

People are talking about “the lost year”. Based on that premise (which clearly isn’t correct), let’s do some simple math: Let’s say half of the world’s population had to change their lives drastically for a, per individual combined, period of 3 months. Let’s also assume the 7.7 billion estimate for the world population is correct, and that 71 years is a reasonable life expectancy estimate (as per wikipedia):

7 700 000 000 * .5 * 3 = 11 550 000 000 months lost

11 550 000 000 / 12 = 962 500 000 years lost

962 500 000 / 71 = 13 556 338 people lives lost

As of today, the WHO estimates 1.69 million people died of COVID-19.

Bundesrat Berset vs The Checklist Manifesto

Pretty interesting take on automatisms in crisis situations:

Coming from a long history of crisis response, I have strong opinions on clearly pre-defined, optimally automated, countermeasures as a critical pillar to stop the bleeding fast.

In addition, it’d be helpful for the population to understand which aspects kick in at any given stage, to weigh their decisions.

COVID-19: infections, distancing

Excellent blog post around distancing and how infection travels through time and space:

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

COVID-19: Switzerland Trend Graph

Here’s a graph tracking day/day COVID-19 cases across Switzerland. Updated realtime, as new data becomes available.

data source: https://github.com/daenuprobst/covid19-cases-switzerland/

COVID-19: daily heatmap

Thanks to the awesome work of Daniel Probst, collecting per canton data and publishing it on https://github.com/daenuprobst/covid19-cases-switzerland, I was able to pull this quick heatmap together, showing latest (ie daily) confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Switzerland, updated constantly (whenever source data changes).

note: unreported cantonal data is backfilled from the previous day

(previous post on this topic: https://www.musings.ch/2020/03/13/covid-19-heatmap-schweiz/)

And since heatmaps over broad areas are not necessarily useful, here’s a map of cantons affected.

COVID-19: lagging indicator of protectionism/lockdowns

On 2020-03-15, when I checked IATA’s travel advisories, it totaled 17 matches for “Switzerland”. Today:

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      29

This includes 3 matches for the Switzerland section alone… but still.

Update: 2020-03-19

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      46

Update: 2020-03-20

curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      56

Update: 2020-03-21

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      57

Update: 2020-03-22

curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      70

Update: 2020-03-23

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      73

Update: 2020-03-24

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      67

Update: 2020-03-25

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      66

Update: 2020-03-26

curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      67

Update: 2020-03-27

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      64

Update: 2020-03-28

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      65

Update: 2020-03-29

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      67

Update: 2020-03-30

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      67

Update: 2020-03-31

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      65

Update: 2020-04-01

curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      65

Update: 2020-04-02

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      64

Update: 2020-04-03

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      64

Update: 2020-04-04

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      63

Update: 2020-04-05

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      65

Update: 2020-04-06

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      65

Update: 2020-04-07

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      65

Update: 2020-04-08

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      65

Update: 2020-04-09

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      62

Update: 2020-04-10

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      60

Update: 2020-04-11

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      67

Update: 2020-04-12

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      67

Update: 2020-04-13

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      68

Update: 2020-04-14

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      68

Update: 2020-04-15

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      69

Update: 2020-04-16

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      68

Update: 2020-04-17

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      64

Update: 2020-04-18

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      64

Update: 2020-04-19

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      64

Update: 2020-04-20

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      64

Update: 2020-04-21

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      64

Update: 2020-04-22

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      65

Update: 2020-04-23

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      65

Update: 2020-04-24

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      65

Update: 2020-04-25

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      66

Update: 2020-04-26

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      66

Update: 2020-04-27

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      66

Update: 2020-04-28

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      66

Update: 2020-04-29

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      67

Update: 2020-04-30

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      67

Update: 2020-05-01

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      67

Update: 2020-05-02

$ curl -s https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | grep -o Switzerland | wc -l
      67

COVID-19: Heatmap Schweiz

Since I was playing with Google Maps API heatmaps recently, I thought I’d put together a quick heatmap showing confirmed COVID-19 cases in Switzerland.

COVID-19 cases per 100k inhabitants, in Switzerland, as of 2020-03-19.

Updated 19.03.2020 using https://www.bag.admin.ch/dam/bag/de/dokumente/mt/k-und-i/aktuelle-ausbrueche-pandemien/2019-nCoV/covid-19-lagebericht.pdf.download.pdf/COVID-19_Epidemiologische_Lage_Schweiz.pdf – now based on incidence of cases per 100k inhabitants.

Day to day developments:

2020-03-14:

Updated 14.03.2020 using https://www.bag.admin.ch/dam/bag/de/dokumente/mt/k-und-i/aktuelle-ausbrueche-pandemien/2019-nCoV/covid-19-lagebericht.pdf.download.pdf/COVID-19_Epidemiologische_Lage_Schweiz.pdf

2020-03-13:

Data source: https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/krankheiten/ausbrueche-epidemien-pandemien/aktuelle-ausbrueche-epidemien/novel-cov/situation-schweiz-und-international.html#-1934206868

13.03.2020 – BR: Coronavirus (COVID-19) und Zeitmaschinen

Ich war ja schon immer ein grosser Anhänger der Zeitmaschinen Frage. Die Antwort wäre sicherlich, dass man, wenn man eine Zeitmaschine hätte, die arme Fledermaus davon bewahren würde, gefangen zu werden.

Aber leider wissen wir ja alle auch, dass, wenn jemand jemals eine Zeitmaschine erfinden würde, wir dies bereits wüssten, und die Frage somit hinfällig wäre 🙂

nextstrain.org: COVID-19

Learned a lot from reading https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/, and since I love visualizations, this is epic: https://nextstrain.org/ncov